US retail sales jump 1.2% in August after a fall in July

The US Census Bureau published its advance estimate of August retail sales on Wednesday 16 September 2026, a few hours before the Federal Reserve's decision.

The figures

Seasonally adjusted, in current dollars:

• Retail and food services sales: $773.9 billion in August, up 1.2% (±0.4%) from July
• Compared with August 2025: up 6.0% (±0.5%)
• July, revised: down 0.5% (±0.2%), previously reported as a fall of 0.6%
• June to August: up 6.0% (±0.5%) on the same three months of 2025

The figures in brackets are the Census Bureau's 90% confidence intervals. Advance estimates come from a smaller sample than the final monthly survey and are often revised, as July's was.

Spending or prices?

Retail sales are measured in dollars and aren't adjusted for price changes. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, and gasoline was 27.4% more expensive than a year earlier (CPI report). Part of the 6.0% annual increase in sales therefore reflects higher prices rather than more goods sold.

Even so, a 1.2% monthly gain after July's fall shows households kept spending in August. Employers added 162,000 jobs that month (report), and consumers expected prices to rise 3.6% over the next year (New York Fed survey).

What it means for the Fed and the dollar

The Fed's statement on 16 September described domestic spending as resilient when it raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% (report). Strong nominal sales alongside 3.4% inflation fit the committee's concern that price pressure hasn't eased.

Retail sales are one of the first monthly readings of consumer spending, which is why they can move the dollar and US stock indexes on the day. The September figures are due next month; release times are on the economic calendar. Live prices: EUR/USD and the US 500.