New York Fed survey: US consumers' inflation expectations steady at 3.6% as job worries reach the highest since 2020

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published its Survey of Consumer Expectations for August on 8 September 2026. The survey was carried out from 3 to 31 August.

Inflation expectations

Median expectations for inflation:

• One year ahead: 3.6%, unchanged
• Three years ahead: 3.2%, down 0.1 percentage point
• Five years ahead: 3.0%, unchanged

Median expected price increases over the next year for individual items:

• Gas: 4.6%, up 1.7 percentage points
• Food: 5.3%
• Medical care: 9.1%
• College education: 6.1%
• Rent: 6.6%

Jobs and income

• Expected earnings growth: 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage point
• Chance of losing a job in the next year: 13.8%, down 0.4 points
• Chance of finding a job if the current one were lost: 45.4%, down 0.8 points
• Chance that US unemployment will be higher a year from now: 44.4%, the highest reading since April 2020

Household finances

• Expected household income growth: 3.0%, unchanged
• Expected household spending growth: 5.2%
• Credit: more households said credit is harder to get than a year earlier
• Chance of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months: 13.2%

Why it matters before the Fed

Expectations surveys give the Fed a read on whether higher prices are changing how people think about the future. The Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision on 16 September (what to watch), after consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August (CPI report).

The University of Michigan's survey, which asks a different sample different questions, showed year-ahead expectations jumping to 4.6% in early September (report). Surveys often disagree on levels, so traders tend to watch the direction of each one over time.