What's the biggest macro risk you're watching?
Every trader keeps a mental list of the risks that could reshape the market: energy shocks, policy errors, geopolitical events, funding stress. Comparing lists is a form of scenario analysis.
Post yours:
- the risk and the transmission channel
- how you'd recognise it early
- how you're positioned for it
Background: risk-on risk-off and safe havens.
Background: Safe-haven currencies: why the yen and Swiss franc rise in a crisis
When markets panic, money flows into a few currencies seen as safe. Why the yen, franc and dollar play that role, and when it breaks down.
Why is the yen a safe-haven currency?
Japan holds large foreign assets that tend to be brought home in a crisis, and the yen is widely borrowed to fund carry trades. Both lead to yen buying when markets fall.
What is a risk-off move?
A shift away from risky assets such as stocks and higher-yielding currencies, towards perceived safe havens such as the yen, Swiss franc, dollar and gold.
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