What did the last Fed cycle teach you?

The Fed has now raised rates for the first time since 2023 (report). The previous cycle taught a generation of traders how quickly expectations can flip.

What did the last Fed cycle teach you? — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

What's your lesson?

  • the mistake you made in the last cycle
  • how you're applying it to this one
  • what you're doing differently this time
What did the last Fed cycle teach you? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Background: the Fed's projections.

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