What is the PPI, and why does China's factory-gate price matter to a forex trader? Explain it simply

China's producer price index measures the prices that firms receive for their output at the factory gate, before goods reach shops. It rose 5.0% on the year in September, 1.2 points faster than in August (PPI report). The consumer price index, which measures what households pay, rose only 0.9% (CPI report).

What is the PPI, and why does China's factory-gate price matter to a forex trader? Explain it simply — moving average crossover diagram
A fast moving average crossing a slower one

The PPI matters to a forex trader because costs at the factory gate can feed into consumer prices later, and because China's production costs affect demand for the raw materials that Australia exports. That is why the Australian dollar often reacts to Chinese price data.

We would like the friendliest explanation in the community:

  • How would you explain the PPI to someone who has only shopped at a supermarket?
  • Why do you think the PPI and CPI can move in different directions?
  • Do you check China's PPI before you trade AUD, or do you use it as background?
  • What other price measure do you find useful for understanding a currency?
What is the PPI, and why does China's factory-gate price matter to a forex trader? Explain it simply — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

PMIs explained gives another way of reading the economy.

The PPI is useful because in many economies it leads the consumer index by several months, although the lag varies from one country to another. Is there a currency you trade where you have seen that lead clearly, and over what period?

Please keep replies friendly and practical. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.

Background: PMIs explained: the survey data that moves currencies early

Purchasing managers' indexes are among the first economic numbers published each month. What the 50 line means, which PMIs matter and how traders use them.

What does a PMI of 50 mean?

50 is the dividing line: readings above 50 indicate that business activity is expanding compared with the previous month, and readings below 50 indicate contraction.

What is a flash PMI?

An early estimate published before the month ends, based on most of the survey responses. Flash PMIs often move markets more than the final figures.

Read the full guide

Comments

Log in to join the discussion. Comments follow the community guidelines.

Log in to comment

Loading comments…