Job openings vs payrolls: which number do you trust more on the day?

The JOLTS report for September is due on Tuesday 3 November at 10:00 a.m. Eastern (preview). The payrolls report for October follows on Friday 6 November (preview). The two measure different things. JOLTS counts job openings, hires, quits and layoffs from employer records. The payroll report counts jobs added from a survey of employers, and the unemployment rate comes from a separate household survey. Non-farm payrolls explained covers how the payroll report is built, and an earlier discussion on what the JOLTS report tells you covers the openings count.

Questions for members:

1. Which of the two do you check first on release day?
2. When openings and payrolls point in different directions, which one has been right more often for you?
3. Do you use JOLTS in your planning, or treat it as background?