US durable goods orders are flat in August at $338.6 billion as transport weighs and other orders rise

The Census Bureau's advance report on durable goods, published on 25 September 2026, shows new orders for manufactured durable goods in August of $338.6 billion, down $0.1 billion, or virtually unchanged. That follows a 0.9% rise in July, which was revised and now stands at $338.7 billion. The Bureau notes that statistical significance cannot be measured for this survey.

The details

• New orders: $338.6 billion, virtually unchanged. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.3%; excluding defence, 0.1%
• Transportation equipment: orders fell $0.7 billion, or 0.6%, to $114.1 billion, down three of the last four months, and drove the decrease
• Shipments: $333.8 billion, down 0.2% after eight consecutive monthly increases; transportation equipment shipments fell 1.8% to $109.5 billion
• Unfilled orders: up 0.6% to $1,609.4 billion, the twenty-fifth increase in twenty-six months
• Inventories: up 0.5% to $608.1 billion, an eleventh consecutive rise
• Nondefense capital goods orders: up 1.2% to $100.5 billion, with shipments down 1.3% to $95.5 billion
• Defence capital goods orders: down 1.5% to $21.5 billion

Transportation equipment orders swing widely from month to month, so economists often look at the figure excluding transportation. On that measure August was positive, and nondefense capital goods orders, a pointer to business investment, also rose. The weaker shipments figure and the rise in inventories point the other way: manufacturers are building stock faster than they ship.

The backdrop

Industrial production was flat in August (report), and the ISM manufacturing index for September, published on 1 October, stood at 54.5 with a prices index of 77.9 (report). The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September (report).

The Census Bureau publishes the September durable goods report on 27 October, the day before the Fed decides. PMIs explained covers how survey and hard data fit together. Live prices: EUR/USD.