Yields and gold: what's the interaction right now?

Gold's biggest driver is real yields — nominal yields minus inflation expectations. When yields and gold move together, the story is usually about inflation or fear.

Yields and gold: what's the interaction right now? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

What are you seeing?

  • how gold is responding to yield moves
  • what the interaction implies about the macro mood
  • the regime where the relationship broke
Yields and gold: what's the interaction right now? — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

Background: what moves the gold price and bond yields.

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