Euro area retail sales rose 0.1% in August. Do you use volumes or nominal spending?

Eurostat's first estimate, published on 6 October, shows euro area retail trade volumes up 0.1% in August from July, after a 0.6% fall in July (retail report). The EU figure also rose 0.1%.

Euro area retail sales rose 0.1% in August. Do you use volumes or nominal spending? — moving average crossover diagram
A fast moving average crossing a slower one

Retail volumes adjust spending for price changes, so they show the quantity bought rather than the cash value of sales. When prices are rising, the two can point in different directions, and that is worth checking before you read a retail number as a sign of demand. Eurostat revises the previous month in each release, so July's 0.6% fall may also change when the next estimate comes out.

We would like to hear how you use retail data:

  • Do you use volume figures or nominal spending figures when you judge consumer demand?
  • How much weight do you give a 0.1% monthly move in a series that gets revised?
  • Which country do you check first in the euro area retail data, and why?
  • Have you ever traded a retail release and found the price adjustment changed the signal?
Euro area retail sales rose 0.1% in August. Do you use volumes or nominal spending? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Euro area inflation for September gives the price side of the same picture.

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.

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