Around a central bank decision, do you widen stops, cut position size or step aside completely?
In one week the Federal Reserve raised rates, the Bank of England held on a split vote and the Bank of Japan raised rates (Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan). On Thursday 24 September the Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank and the Riksbank all announce decisions.
The SNB has a history of surprising markets. On 15 January 2015 it abruptly dropped its minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs per euro, and the franc jumped within minutes. That episode is one reason many brokers raise margin requirements on franc pairs around SNB announcements (SNB preview).
Traders handle event risk in very different ways, and there is no single right answer. We would like members to describe theirs.
- Do you have a fixed rule for the hours around a decision, or do you decide case by case?
- Do you widen stops, cut position size, close trades before the announcement, or stay away from the pair entirely?
- Do you trade the release itself, or wait for the market to settle and the press conference to finish?
- Have you seen slippage or a broker margin change around an announcement, and how did you find out?
Some members will say the answer depends on the pair and the central bank, so tell us which ones you mean. Position sizing covers how to keep the risk per trade fixed while conditions change.
Please share your own approach and what it has cost or saved you. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.
Background: Position sizing: how to risk a fixed percentage per trade
How much you trade matters more than where you enter. A step-by-step method for sizing positions from your stop-loss and the amount you are willing to lose.
How do I calculate lot size from risk?
Divide the amount you are willing to lose by the stop distance in pips multiplied by the pip value per lot. For $50 risk, a 25-pip stop and $10 per pip per lot, that is 0.20 lots.
What is the 1% rule in trading?
A guideline to risk no more than 1% of the account on any single trade, so a losing streak doesn't cause a drawdown you can't recover from. It is a starting point, not a guarantee.
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