What's the number everyone's waiting for?

Some releases carry a week's worth of attention: the CPI print, the payrolls number, the central bank decision. This thread names the number and the expectations around it.

What's the number everyone's waiting for? — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

Post:

  • the release and the number
  • the consensus expectation and your own
  • what the market does if it misses either way
What's the number everyone's waiting for? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The calendar shows the release times.

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