Seasonality in forex: myth or useful?

Some calendar patterns keep repeating — year-end dollar demand, summer thinness, January effects. But seasonality is a tendency, not a promise, and it breaks exactly when everyone leans on it.

Seasonality in forex: myth or useful? — moving average crossover diagram
A fast moving average crossing a slower one

What's your view?

  • a seasonal pattern you've actually traded
  • one that failed when you needed it
  • how much weight seasonality gets in your plan
Seasonality in forex: myth or useful? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Honest backtests are the only way to know; patterns in hindsight are cheap.

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