How are you reading the euro-area story right now?
The euro area grew 0.6% in Q2 (report) and the ECB raised rates to 2.50% (report). Growth and policy are moving together for once.
What's your synthesis?
- how the growth pick-up shapes the ECB's path
- the euro pairs that express your view
- the data that would change it
Background: how interest rates move currencies.
Background: How interest rate decisions move currencies
Central bank decisions are the biggest scheduled events in forex. Why rates matter, why a hike can weaken a currency, and what to read beyond the decision.
Does a rate hike always strengthen a currency?
No. If the hike was fully expected, it is already in the price. The currency can even weaken if the central bank signals that it won't raise rates further.
What does hawkish mean?
Leaning towards higher interest rates to control inflation. A hawkish surprise usually supports the currency.
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