Swiss inflation is 1.0% and the euro is at its lowest since May 2025. Is EUR/CHF telling a different story from EUR/USD?

Swiss consumer prices were unchanged in September and 1.0% above a year earlier, up from 0.8% in August, with core inflation at 0.5% (full report). The Swiss National Bank held its rate at 0% on 24 September and projects average inflation of 0.7% this year (report).

On ECB reference rates the euro fell 3.6% against the dollar from 4 September to 5 October, but against the Swiss franc the move was smaller: EUR/CHF went from 0.9405 to 0.9311, a fall of about 1.0%. By FTC's calculation from the same rates, USD/CHF rose from 0.8092 to 0.8310 (report). So the franc lost ground to the dollar but held up better against the euro.

That is a reminder that a "weak euro" is not one thing. Against the dollar the move was large; against the franc and the pound it was different, and a cross rate can tell a story the dollar pair hides.

We would like to hear how you use crosses:

• Do you check EUR/CHF or EUR/GBP before you form a view on EUR/USD, or the other way around?
• Does a smaller move in a cross change your read on whether the euro itself is weak, or the dollar is strong?
• With the SNB at 0% and euro area inflation at 3.8%, what do you expect of the franc's safe-haven demand, and what evidence would change your mind?

Cross rates explained shows how to derive them, and why the franc is different gives the background.

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.