Jobless claims fell to 194,000. Do you trust the weekly number or the four-week average?

Initial jobless claims were 194,000 in the week to 17 October, down 6,000 on the previous week, according to the Labor Department's advance estimate (claims report). The four-week average was 197,750. Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1,728,000 in the week to 10 October.

Jobless claims fell to 194,000. Do you trust the weekly number or the four-week average? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Weekly claims are volatile and revised, which makes one number a weak guide. The four-week average smooths out one-off changes, but continuing claims move more slowly and can tell a different story about how quickly people find new work. Each release also revises the prior week, so last week's figure can change in the same report that gives you the new one.

We would like to hear how you use the weekly series:

  • Do you trade the weekly claims print on the day, or wait for the four-week average?
  • Which matters more to you: initial claims or continuing claims?
  • How do you judge the labour market when layoffs are low but hiring is slow?
  • Have you traded a jobless claims surprise and then seen the payrolls report disagree?
Jobless claims fell to 194,000. Do you trust the weekly number or the four-week average? — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

The September payrolls report gives the monthly picture to compare with the weekly data.

Please share your own approach and reasoning, not calls for others to copy. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.

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