Central bank decision day: what's your actual play?

Rate decisions move on the vote split, the statement changes and the press conference as much as the rate itself. Strategies range from flat-until-after to pre-positioned with hedged size.

Central bank decision day: what's your actual play? — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

What's yours?

  • whether you hold, hedge or sit out before the decision
  • which part of the event you trade (statement, projections, presser)
  • the decision-day lesson that cost you most
Central bank decision day: what's your actual play? — support and resistance diagram
Price bouncing between support and resistance

The interest rates guide decodes the event mechanics.

Background: How interest rate decisions move currencies

Central bank decisions are the biggest scheduled events in forex. Why rates matter, why a hike can weaken a currency, and what to read beyond the decision.

Does a rate hike always strengthen a currency?

No. If the hike was fully expected, it is already in the price. The currency can even weaken if the central bank signals that it won't raise rates further.

What does hawkish mean?

Leaning towards higher interest rates to control inflation. A hawkish surprise usually supports the currency.

Read the full guide

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