Regime change: how do you detect a market that isn't itself anymore?

Trending markets become ranging, calm becomes volatile, and strategies built for one regime bleed in the other. Detection means watching volatility, correlation and your own win rate for structural shifts.

Regime change: how do you detect a market that isn't itself anymore? — trend versus range diagram
A trending market compared with a ranging one

What are your regime indicators?

  • the signals that tell you conditions changed
  • how you adjust before the damage compounds
  • the regime shift you caught late
Regime change: how do you detect a market that isn't itself anymore? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The ATR guide and correlation guide are the classic detectors.

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