Two flash PMIs pointed in different directions on one morning. How do you avoid overreacting?

On 23 October the flash PMIs for the UK and the euro area pointed in different directions. The UK composite rose to 53.1, while the euro area composite fell to 51.9 (UK report, euro area report). A morning like that can tempt a trader to act on the first headline and then build a story around it before the detail has been read.

The discipline is to read the detail first: the services line, the manufacturing line and the cost readings. Early numbers are revised, and a single survey rarely changes the policy path on its own. Writing down the reading you expect, and the level that would surprise you, helps separate the data from the story you build afterwards.

We would like to hear how you handle an early morning of mixed data:

• Do you write down your expected direction before a flash PMI comes out?
• How long do you wait before you act on a flash figure?
• Have you traded the headline and then found the detail said something else?
• What rule do you use to stop yourself from trading a story the numbers do not support?

How to trade the news sets out a way to plan around releases.

Please keep replies to your own experience. Posts that promise a direction or sell signals will be removed.