The dollar smile: do you use it?

The dollar-smile theory: the dollar strengthens both when the US economy booms and when global fear peaks, and weakens in between. It's a neat frame for a messy reality.

The dollar smile: do you use it? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Does it match your experience?

  • where the dollar sits on the smile now, in your view
  • how the theory helps or hurts your trades
  • the regime where the smile broke down
The dollar smile: do you use it? — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

The DXY guide and risk-on risk-off guide supply the underlying mechanics.

Background: The US Dollar Index (DXY) explained: its six currencies and their weights

The ICE US Dollar Index measures the dollar against six currencies, with the euro at 57.6%. How it's calculated, why its 1973 base and fixed weights matter, and how traders use it.

What currencies are in the US Dollar Index?

The euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%).

What does a DXY reading of 100 mean?

The index was set at 100 in March 1973. A reading above 100 means the dollar is stronger against the six-currency basket than it was then; below 100 means weaker.

Read the full guide

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