Retail sentiment as a contrarian signal: do you trade against it?

Brokers publish the percentage of retail traders long or short, and the contrarian instinct is to fade the crowd. It works until it doesn't — retail is often on the right side of trends — and the signal needs heavy filtering.

Retail sentiment as a contrarian signal: do you trade against it? — trend versus range diagram
A trending market compared with a ranging one

What's your experience?

Retail sentiment as a contrarian signal: do you trade against it? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2
  • the sentiment source you watch
  • the filters that make it usable
  • the time the crowd was right and you weren't

The risk-on risk-off guide frames sentiment in context.

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