Positioning extremes: do you fade the crowd?

When everyone is positioned one way, the fuel for the move is spent and the reversal becomes likely — in theory. Crowded trades can stay crowded for months, which is why positioning is a slow, dangerous signal.

Positioning extremes: do you fade the crowd? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

How do you use it?

  • the positioning data you watch
  • the conditions that make extremes tradable for you
  • the crowded trade that kept working against you
Positioning extremes: do you fade the crowd? — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

The risk-on risk-off guide covers the mood that drives crowding.

Background: Risk-on, risk-off explained: how market mood moves currencies

When investors feel confident, higher-yielding and commodity currencies tend to rise; when fear takes over, the yen, franc and dollar often gain. How risk sentiment works and how to spot a shift.

What does risk-on mean in forex?

A period when investors are confident and willing to take risk, which tends to lift stocks, higher-yielding currencies and commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, while the yen and Swiss franc weaken.

Which currencies rise in a risk-off market?

Typically the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and often the US dollar, as investors look for safety and liquidity.

Read the full guide

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