Recession watch: what are the signals saying?
Recession fears repriced currencies repeatedly in recent years, and the signals — yield curves, PMIs, labour data — are watched obsessively. The debate is always whether the signal is real this time.
Post your read:
- the recession indicators you trust
- what they're saying now
- how you'd position if the call flips
Background: PMI explained and bond yields.
Background: PMIs explained: the survey data that moves currencies early
Purchasing managers' indexes are among the first economic numbers published each month. What the 50 line means, which PMIs matter and how traders use them.
What does a PMI of 50 mean?
50 is the dividing line: readings above 50 indicate that business activity is expanding compared with the previous month, and readings below 50 indicate contraction.
What is a flash PMI?
An early estimate published before the month ends, based on most of the survey responses. Flash PMIs often move markets more than the final figures.
Comments
Log in to join the discussion. Comments follow the community guidelines.
Log in to commentLoading comments…