Recency bias: what does the last trade do to the next one?

The most recent outcome colours the next decision: after a win, entries come easier; after a loss, hesitation. The past trade shouldn't vote on the future one, yet it always does.

Recency bias: what does the last trade do to the next one? — drawdown and recovery diagram
An equity curve during a drawdown and its recovery

How do you counter it?

  • how you notice the last trade's influence
  • the pause you insert between trades
  • the routine that resets the slate
Recency bias: what does the last trade do to the next one? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The journal guide records the influence so it can be seen.

Background: How to keep a trading journal that actually improves your trading

A journal turns a pile of trades into evidence. What to record, the numbers worth calculating and a weekly review routine that takes less than an hour.

What should a trading journal include?

For each trade: the pair, direction, size, entry, stop, target, risk, the reason for the trade, how you felt, the result in money and in R, whether you followed your plan, and chart screenshots.

How do I calculate expectancy?

Multiply your win rate by your average win, then subtract your loss rate multiplied by your average loss. Measured in R, a positive result means the approach has made money per trade on average.

Read the full guide

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