Gambler's fallacy: do you fall for it?

"I've lost five in a row, so the next one must win" — the gambler's fallacy treats independent events as balancing. Markets don't balance; they just continue.

Gambler's fallacy: do you fall for it? — drawdown and recovery diagram
An equity curve during a drawdown and its recovery

Where do you see it?

  • how the fallacy shows up in your thinking
  • the streak that tempted you into it
  • the statistical truth that cures it
Gambler's fallacy: do you fall for it? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The drawdown guide explains streak statistics properly.

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