Policy divergence: which central banks are going their own way?
When central banks diverge — one hiking while another cuts — the currency pairs between them trend. Divergence is the mother of durable FX trends, and it's worth tracking deliberately.
What are you seeing?
- the divergence you're trading or watching
- how long you expect it to last
- the pair that expresses it best
Background: how interest rate decisions move currencies and inflation targets.
Background: How interest rate decisions move currencies
Central bank decisions are the biggest scheduled events in forex. Why rates matter, why a hike can weaken a currency, and what to read beyond the decision.
Does a rate hike always strengthen a currency?
No. If the hike was fully expected, it is already in the price. The currency can even weaken if the central bank signals that it won't raise rates further.
What does hawkish mean?
Leaning towards higher interest rates to control inflation. A hawkish surprise usually supports the currency.
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