Norges Bank raised its rate and the Riksbank held: how are you trading the split between NOK and SEK?

On 24 September Norges Bank raised its policy rate a quarter point to 4.50%, while Sweden's Riksbank held at 1.75% but said increases are now likely to begin before the end of the year (full report). Two central banks that are often discussed together moved in different directions on the same morning.

Norges Bank's move was justified by inflation running hotter than its June forecast even as the underlying CPI-ATE measure cooled. The Riksbank's hold came with unusually direct forward guidance: it now expects to raise its own rate more than it projected in June, "if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged."

That leaves a genuine trading question, not just a "which pair do you watch" one:

• Do you treat this as NOK now having the clearer near-term rate advantage, or does the Riksbank's guidance mean SEK catches up before year-end anyway?
• How much of the krone's move on the day was the hike itself versus the new rate path in Norges Bank's forecast?
• Do you trade EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK as a pair, given both currencies now have diverging but hawkish-leaning central banks against a euro area that already raised rates on 10 September?
• Oil prices matter more for the krone than the krona (commodity currencies explained) — did Brent above $100 a barrel factor into your read at all?

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