Monte Carlo thinking: how do you stress-test a strategy?

Shuffling your trade results thousands of times shows the range of outcomes your strategy could have produced by luck alone. It answers the question every trader should ask: was my edge real, or was this a lucky sequence?

Monte Carlo thinking: how do you stress-test a strategy? — drawdown and recovery diagram
An equity curve during a drawdown and its recovery

Do you stress-test?

  • the tools or spreadsheets you use
  • how the results changed your confidence or size
  • the sequence risk you discovered
Monte Carlo thinking: how do you stress-test a strategy? — bid-ask spread diagram
The bid-ask spread on a currency pair

The drawdown guide covers the maths of losing streaks that stress tests reveal.

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