Minimum sample sizes: how many trades convince you?
Thirty trades is a story; three hundred is evidence. The minimum sample depends on the win rate and the edge size — but most traders trust far too few trades far too quickly.
What's your threshold?
- the trade count you require before going live
- how you account for the strategy's expected win rate
- the small-sample disaster you've seen
The expectancy guide explains sample-size thinking.
Background: Risk-reward ratio, win rate and expectancy: the maths behind a trading edge
A high win rate can still lose money. See how win rate and risk-reward combine into expectancy, with break-even win rates and worked examples.
What is a good risk-reward ratio in forex?
There isn't one right ratio. What matters is expectancy, the win rate and ratio together. A 1:2 ratio breaks even at about 33% winners before costs, while a 1:1 ratio needs 50%.
How do you calculate trading expectancy?
Multiply the win rate by the average win and subtract the loss rate multiplied by the average loss. Measuring wins and losses in multiples of the amount risked (R) makes the result easy to compare.
Comments
Log in to join the discussion. Comments follow the community guidelines.
Log in to commentLoading comments…