Mean reversion: what's your fade setup?

Fading stretched moves against the mean wins often and loses big when the move isn't a stretch but a trend. The setup's whole job is telling those apart — and most fades fail right there.

Mean reversion: what's your fade setup? — trend versus range diagram
A trending market compared with a ranging one

Describe your fade:

  • how you define "stretched" objectively
  • the confirmation before you enter against the move
  • the stop rule for when the fade is wrong
Mean reversion: what's your fade setup? — moving average crossover diagram
A fast moving average crossing a slower one

The Bollinger Bands guide and RSI are the classic fade instruments.

Background: Bollinger Bands explained: the squeeze, band walks and mean reversion

Bollinger Bands wrap a moving average in two volatility bands. Learn how they're calculated, what a squeeze means and why touching a band isn't a signal on its own.

What are the standard Bollinger Bands settings?

A 20-period simple moving average, with bands 2 standard deviations above and below it.

Is touching the upper Bollinger Band a sell signal?

Not on its own. In a strong uptrend price can ride the upper band for a long time. A touch shows price is stretched relative to recent volatility, which needs other evidence before it becomes a trade.

Read the full guide

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