What's the role of luck in beginner wins?

Early wins are often luck wearing a strategy costume, and they're dangerous precisely because they feel earned. The beginner who wins three straight trades with no edge has been set up to size up and give it all back.

Did you have beginner's luck?

• your first wins and what you believed about them
• when you realised luck had been doing the work
• how you tell luck from edge now

The expectancy guide gives the maths for telling them apart.