What do you do when you doubt everything?
The bad stretches bring total doubt: the strategy, the edge, the career choice. The doubt feels like insight and usually isn't — but the feeling is real and the response matters.
How do you handle it?
- how you separate doubt from evidence
- the data you return to in the doubt
- what you decide during it (nothing, ideally)
The expectancy guide is the evidence you return to.
Background: Risk-reward ratio, win rate and expectancy: the maths behind a trading edge
A high win rate can still lose money. See how win rate and risk-reward combine into expectancy, with break-even win rates and worked examples.
What is a good risk-reward ratio in forex?
There isn't one right ratio. What matters is expectancy, the win rate and ratio together. A 1:2 ratio breaks even at about 33% winners before costs, while a 1:1 ratio needs 50%.
How do you calculate trading expectancy?
Multiply the win rate by the average win and subtract the loss rate multiplied by the average loss. Measuring wins and losses in multiples of the amount risked (R) makes the result easy to compare.
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