The Kelly criterion: does anyone actually use it?

Kelly says how much to bet to maximise growth, given your edge — and full Kelly is violently aggressive for trading, so practitioners use fractions. The maths is elegant; the inputs (your true edge) are guesses.

The Kelly criterion: does anyone actually use it? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

Have you tried it?

  • the fraction you used and why
  • how it felt through a losing streak
  • what you'd tell someone curious about Kelly sizing
The Kelly criterion: does anyone actually use it? — drawdown and recovery diagram
An equity curve during a drawdown and its recovery

The expectancy guide supplies the inputs Kelly needs.

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