How do you separate strategy from luck?

A winning month can be luck; a losing one can be good process. The separation takes records, samples and time — and most traders never do it because the emotional answer comes faster.

How do you separate strategy from luck? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

What's your method?

  • the data you trust to separate the two
  • the lucky streak you mistook for edge
  • the good process that looked like failure
How do you separate strategy from luck? — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

The expectancy guide is the tool for the separation.

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