How do you interpret a sudden price spike?

A spike has a story: a data release, a headline, a central banker speaking, a fat-finger order, or intervention. The spike itself tells you nothing about which one it was — and the correct response depends entirely on the cause.

How do you interpret a sudden price spike? — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

What's your spike routine?

  • how you find out what caused it
  • whether you trade the spike or wait
  • the spike that taught you the most
How do you interpret a sudden price spike? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The intervention guide covers one class of spikes, and the calendar explains most of the others.

Background: Currency intervention explained: how and why governments step in

When a currency moves too far, too fast, authorities can buy or sell it directly. How intervention works, Japan's record operations and what it means for traders.

What is currency intervention?

When a government or central bank buys or sells its own currency in the foreign exchange market to influence its value.

How much has Japan spent on yen intervention?

About ¥9.2 trillion in September and October 2022, ¥9.79 trillion in April–May 2024 and a record ¥11.73 trillion between 28 April and 27 May 2026, according to Ministry of Finance data. Japan also intervened jointly with the US on 31 July 2026.

Read the full guide

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