USD/CAD strategy: oil, rates or both?

USD/CAD answers to two masters: oil prices and the interest-rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. The pair's character changes depending on which master is active.

USD/CAD strategy: oil, rates or both? — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

How do you trade it?

  • the weight you give oil versus rate expectations
  • the Canadian releases that matter to you
  • the regime where your model failed
USD/CAD strategy: oil, rates or both? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The oil and CAD guide and commodity currencies guide cover the channels.

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