Robustness checks: what does it take for you to trust a backtest?

A single backtest is a claim; a trusted one has survived abuse: different periods, changed parameters, added costs, shuffled trades. Each check that survives raises the confidence.

Robustness checks: what does it take for you to trust a backtest? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

What's your battery of checks?

  • the tests you run before trusting results
  • how you handle parameter sensitivity
  • the strategy that passed everything and still failed
Robustness checks: what does it take for you to trust a backtest? — candlestick anatomy diagram
The parts of a candlestick: wick, body, open and close

The expectancy guide sets the statistical baseline.

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