Month-end flows: what are you expecting this month?

FTC Community TeamStaff17 Sept 20266 views

Fund rebalancing and corporate hedging at month-end produce flows that can dominate the last sessions. This thread collects expectations and observations before the flows arrive.

the flow direction you expect and why
the pairs most exposed this month
how you adjust your positioning into month-end

Background: trade balance and current account for the flow mechanics.

Background: Trade balance and current account explained: do deficits weaken a currency?

The trade balance compares exports with imports; the current account adds income and transfers. How they're reported, why a deficit doesn't automatically weaken a currency, and what traders watch.

What is the difference between the trade balance and the current account?

The trade balance covers exports and imports of goods and services. The current account adds income from investments abroad, minus income paid to foreign investors, and transfers such as remittances.

Does a trade deficit weaken a currency?

Not automatically. A deficit has to be financed by foreign investment or lending, and if investors want the country's assets, those inflows can support its currency.

Read the full guide

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