Hawkish and dovish surprises: what did they look like in real time?

A hawkish surprise is a central bank sounding tighter than priced; a dovish one the reverse. The moves are fast, and the lessons are memorable.

Hawkish and dovish surprises: what did they look like in real time? — central bank rate path diagram
A central bank's policy rate path across recent meetings

Share a recent example:

  • the bank, the surprise and the size of the move
  • how you were positioned, honestly
  • what it taught you about surprise risk
Hawkish and dovish surprises: what did they look like in real time? — risk-reward diagram
A risk-reward ratio of 1 to 2

The interest rates guide explains why surprises move markets.

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