# UK jobs data on 15 September: unemployment and pay growth before the Bank of England

> Update: unemployment was 4.9% in May to July and regular pay growth 3.5%. This preview shows where the previous ONS release left things before the new figures came out.

- Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/uk-labour-market-preview-september-2026/
- Type: Preview
- Published: 2026-09-14
- Updated: 2026-09-19
- Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team
- Currencies: GBP

**Update, 15 September:** the figures are out. Unemployment was 4.9% in May to July, regular pay growth 3.5% and private sector regular pay growth 2.9% ([full report](/news/uk-labour-market-september-2026/)).

The Office for National Statistics publishes its next UK labour market figures at 7:00 a.m. UK time on Tuesday 15 September 2026, two days before the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision. Here is where the previous release, published on 18 August, left things.

## The August release in numbers

For April to June 2026:

- **Unemployment rate**: 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points on the year but down 0.1 points on the previous quarter
- **Employment rate** (ages 16 to 64): 75.1%
- **Economic inactivity rate**: 20.9%, largely unchanged

Other measures:

- **Payrolled employees**: 30.3 million in July (provisional), down 94,000 on the year
- **Vacancies**: 707,000 in May to July, down 6,000 on the quarter
- **Regular pay growth**: 3.5% a year; total pay including bonuses 4.1%
- **By sector**: regular pay grew 6.1% in the public sector and 2.8% in the private sector
- **Real regular pay**, adjusted for CPI inflation: up 0.7%

## Handle the survey figures with care

The ONS continues to advise caution when drawing conclusions from short-term changes in the Labour Force Survey and suggests focusing on longer-term movements. It also reported an operational issue in May 2026 that had a noticeable effect on estimates of average hours. Payroll data from tax records and the vacancies survey offer a cross-check.

## Why it matters for the Bank of England

In July, the Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three of its nine members voting to raise it to 4% ([preview](/news/bank-of-england-september-2026-preview/)). Private sector regular pay growth is one of the measures the MPC watches most closely for domestic inflation pressure. A further slowdown would weaken the case for a rise; a pickup would strengthen it.

The other recent data: UK inflation was 2.9% in July ([report](/news/uk-inflation-july-2026-2-9-percent/)) and GDP grew 0.4% in July ([report](/news/uk-gdp-july-2026/)).

Traders in [GBP/USD](/markets/gbp-usd/) and [EUR/GBP](/markets/eur-gbp/) are likely to look at private sector pay and the unemployment rate first.

## Sources

- [Office for National Statistics: Labour market overview, UK: August 2026](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/august2026)

## Common questions

### When is the next UK labour market release?

The September release was published on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 7:00 a.m. UK time. It showed unemployment at 4.9% for May to July 2026.

### What is the UK unemployment rate?

4.9% for April to June 2026, according to the ONS release of 18 August 2026.

### How fast are UK wages growing?

Regular pay grew 3.5% a year and total pay 4.1% in the ONS August 2026 release. Private sector regular pay grew 2.8%, and public sector regular pay 6.1%.

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This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.