# RBA decision on 29 September 2026: what a 4.35% cash rate, inflation at 3.5% and a softer jobs market mean > The Reserve Bank of Australia decides at 2:30 pm AEST on 29 September, the day before August CPI. It held at 4.35% in August and said it would raise the rate again if upside risks to inflation materialise. - Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/rba-september-2026-preview/ - Type: Preview - Published: 2026-09-21 - Updated: 2026-09-21 - Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team - Currencies: AUD The Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board meets on 28 and 29 September and announces its decision at 2:30 pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September, which is 04:30 UTC, with a media conference at 3:30 pm. No Statement on Monetary Policy accompanies this meeting. The cash rate target is 4.35%, unchanged at the last meeting on 11 August ([report](/news/rba-holds-cash-rate-4-35-august-2026/)). ## What the Board said in August The August statement said the Board "decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent". Its assessment: - **Inflation**: headline inflation "is still too high", and trimmed mean inflation, the Bank's preferred measure of underlying prices, "remains elevated and is little changed from the March quarter". It isn't expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027 - **Labour market**: conditions "have eased by a little more than expected in recent months" - **Guidance**: the Board "will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise" ## The data since August - **Monthly CPI for July** (ABS, 26 August): annual inflation was 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6%, unchanged. Housing rose 5.0%, food and non-alcoholic beverages 3.2% and recreation and culture 2.6%. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel rose 3.8% - **GDP for the June quarter** (ABS, 2 September): up 0.4%, with household consumption also up 0.4% ([report](/news/australia-gdp-june-quarter-2026/)) - **Labour force for July**: unemployment rose to 4.5% from 4.4%, and employment fell by 15,800 ## A decision before the data The ABS publishes August CPI on 30 September, the day after the decision, so the Board will decide without the newest inflation figure. Before that, the August labour force report is due on 24 September ([week-ahead calendar](/news/forex-week-ahead-21-25-september-2026/)). Those two releases are the ones that could change the assessment set out in August. ## What to watch on the day - Whether the statement keeps its wording about increasing the cash rate "if upside risks materialise" - Whether the description of the labour market changes after the jobs data - The media conference at 3:30 pm AEST, where questions go beyond the written statement - The reaction in [AUD/USD](/markets/aud-usd/). The Australian dollar responds to the rate gap with the United States, to Chinese demand for commodities and to risk appetite ([commodity currencies explained](/news/commodity-currencies-aud-nzd-cad-nok/)); [how interest rate decisions move currencies](/news/how-interest-rate-decisions-move-currencies/) shows why guidance can matter more than the decision ## Dates after the decision The RBA's Financial Stability Review is due on 1 October at 11:30 am AEST, and the minutes of the September meeting on 13 October at 11:30 am AEDT. ## Sources - [Reserve Bank of Australia: Statement by the Monetary Policy Board, 11 August 2026](https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-19.html) - [Reserve Bank of Australia: Coming up (decision 29 September at 2.30 pm AEST)](https://www.rba.gov.au/coming-up/) - [Australian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026 (released 26 August 2026; next release 30 September 2026)](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release) - [Australian Bureau of Statistics: Australian economy grew 0.4% in the June quarter](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australian-economy-grew-04-june-quarter) - [Australian Bureau of Statistics: Unemployment rate rises to 4.5% in July](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-rises-45-july) ## Common questions ### When is the next RBA interest rate decision? Tuesday 29 September 2026. The Monetary Policy Board meets on 28 and 29 September and publishes its decision at 2:30 pm AEST (04:30 UTC), followed by a media conference at 3:30 pm AEST. ### What is the RBA cash rate now? 4.35%. The Board left the cash rate target unchanged at that level on 11 August 2026. ### Will the RBA raise interest rates on 29 September? That is for the Board to decide on the day. In August it said it would continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise. ### What is Australia's inflation rate? The monthly CPI for July 2026 showed annual inflation of 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June, and trimmed mean inflation of 3.6%, unchanged. The August figure is due on 30 September, the day after the RBA decision. ### What is trimmed mean inflation? A measure of underlying inflation that the RBA prefers. It leaves out the items with the largest price changes in each period, so that temporary swings don't distort the picture. ### Is there a press conference after the RBA decision? Yes, at 3:30 pm AEST on 29 September. No Statement on Monetary Policy is released that day. ### When are the minutes of the September RBA meeting released? On 13 October 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT. --- This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.