# New York Fed survey: US consumers' inflation expectations steady at 3.6% as job worries reach the highest since 2020

> One-year inflation expectations were unchanged in August and three-year expectations slipped to 3.2%, but the expected chance of higher unemployment rose to 44.4%.

- Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/ny-fed-consumer-expectations-august-2026/
- Type: Data
- Published: 2026-09-15
- Updated: 2026-09-15
- Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team
- Currencies: USD

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published its Survey of Consumer Expectations for August on 8 September 2026. The survey was carried out from 3 to 31 August.

## Inflation expectations

Median expectations for inflation:

- **One year ahead**: 3.6%, unchanged
- **Three years ahead**: 3.2%, down 0.1 percentage point
- **Five years ahead**: 3.0%, unchanged

Median expected price increases over the next year for individual items:

- **Gas**: 4.6%, up 1.7 percentage points
- **Food**: 5.3%
- **Medical care**: 9.1%
- **College education**: 6.1%
- **Rent**: 6.6%

## Jobs and income

- **Expected earnings growth**: 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage point
- **Chance of losing a job** in the next year: 13.8%, down 0.4 points
- **Chance of finding a job** if the current one were lost: 45.4%, down 0.8 points
- **Chance that US unemployment will be higher a year from now**: 44.4%, the highest reading since April 2020

## Household finances

- **Expected household income growth**: 3.0%, unchanged
- **Expected household spending growth**: 5.2%
- **Credit**: more households said credit is harder to get than a year earlier
- **Chance of missing a minimum debt payment** over the next three months: 13.2%

## Why it matters before the Fed

Expectations surveys give the Fed a read on whether higher prices are changing how people think about the future. The Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision on 16 September ([what to watch](/news/fed-meeting-september-2026-what-to-watch/)), after consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August ([CPI report](/news/us-cpi-august-2026-inflation-3-4-percent/)).

The University of Michigan's survey, which asks a different sample different questions, showed year-ahead expectations jumping to 4.6% in early September ([report](/news/us-consumer-sentiment-september-2026/)). Surveys often disagree on levels, so traders tend to watch the direction of each one over time.

## Sources

- [Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Survey of Consumer Expectations, August 2026](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908)

## Common questions

### What are US consumers' inflation expectations?

In the New York Fed's August 2026 survey, median inflation expectations were 3.6% one year ahead, 3.2% three years ahead and 3.0% five years ahead.

### What is the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations?

A monthly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks US households about their expectations for inflation, jobs, income, spending and credit.

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This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.