# IEA expects world oil demand to fall 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 as Gulf exports stay near half their pre-war level

> The International Energy Agency's September report says global inventories fell by a further 95 million barrels in August, taking draws since February to 507 million barrels.

- Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/iea-oil-market-report-september-2026/
- Type: Markets
- Published: 2026-09-15
- Updated: 2026-09-15
- Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team
- Currencies: USD, CAD, NOK

The International Energy Agency published its September Oil Market Report on 11 September 2026. It describes a market where demand is shrinking because supply has been cut so sharply by the conflict in the Middle East.

## Demand

- **2026**: world oil demand is forecast to decline by 2.5 million barrels a day (mb/d)
- **2027**: demand is projected to recover by 2.6 mb/d

## Supply

- **August 2026**: global oil production was 100.1 mb/d
- **2026**: total supply is set to fall by 5.7 mb/d to 100.7 mb/d
- **2027**: production is set to rebound by 8 mb/d
- **OPEC+**: output was 33.11 mb/d in August

The IEA estimates that total oil exports from Gulf countries were around 13 mb/d in August, nearly half their pre-war level, as the conflict and the impasse in negotiations between the United States and Iran continued.

## Stocks, prices and refineries

- **Inventories**: global observed oil stocks fell by a further 95 million barrels in August, taking cumulative draws since February to 507 million barrels
- **Brent**: averaged $91.00 a barrel in August, then rose to $113.48 on 9 September
- **Refineries**: throughput was 81.4 mb/d in August, and is forecast to decline by 2.6 mb/d to 81.5 mb/d in 2026

## Why it matters for currency traders

Falling inventories alongside falling demand means supply is the main driver of prices for now. Brent has traded above $100 since 3 September as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dwindled ([report](/news/brent-crude-above-100-september-2026/)).

Oil prices feed into currencies in several ways:

- **Exporters**: the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone tend to be sensitive to oil prices ([commodity currencies](/news/commodity-currencies-aud-nzd-cad-nok/), [oil and the Canadian dollar](/news/oil-prices-and-the-canadian-dollar/))
- **Importers**: higher energy costs weigh on economies such as the euro area and Japan
- **Central banks**: energy prices push up headline inflation. Canada's August CPI showed gasoline up 22.8% on a year earlier ([report](/news/canada-cpi-august-2026/))

Live prices: [Brent crude](/markets/brent-crude-oil/), [WTI crude](/markets/wti-crude-oil/) and [USD/CAD](/markets/usd-cad/).

## Sources

- [International Energy Agency: Oil Market Report, September 2026](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026)

## Common questions

### What does the IEA forecast for oil demand in 2026?

In its September 2026 Oil Market Report, the IEA forecast that world oil demand will decline by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 and recover by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2027.

### How much have global oil inventories fallen?

Global observed inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August 2026, taking cumulative draws since February to 507 million barrels, according to the IEA.

### When does the IEA publish its Oil Market Report?

Monthly. The September 2026 report was published on 11 September 2026.

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