# IEA sees 2026 oil demand down 2.6 million barrels a day, with only a partial 2027 recovery

> The International Energy Agency's October report puts 2026 demand 2.6 million barrels a day lower and says a 2027 recovery of 2 million will leave demand about 620,000 barrels a day below 2025.

- Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/iea-oil-market-report-october-2026/
- Type: Markets
- Published: 2026-10-19
- Updated: 2026-10-19
- Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team
- Currencies: USD, CAD, NOK

The International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report for October 2026 forecasts global oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day on average in 2026. In the fourth quarter alone, demand is expected to be 2.5 million barrels a day lower than a year earlier. The agency attributes the drop to the conflict in the Middle East, which has limited product supply, raised fuel prices and weakened economic activity.

## The 2027 outlook

The IEA expects a partial recovery of 2 million barrels a day in 2027. That still leaves demand in 2027 about 620,000 barrels a day below its 2025 level. The rebound is therefore not a return to earlier demand.

## Supply

Output rose in September, driven by Gulf producers, according to the agency. The IEA's full supply and refinery projections are in the report itself, which we have linked below.

## Reading it

The report describes demand being cut by high fuel prices and supply being limited by the conflict, so the balance depends on both. For currency traders, oil is a key input for the [Canadian dollar](/news/oil-prices-and-the-canadian-dollar/) and the Norwegian krone. The IEA's [September report](/news/iea-oil-market-report-september-2026/) is the previous edition.

The next OPEC+ decision is due on 1 November. Brent has traded above $100 for much of September ([report](/news/brent-crude-above-100-september-2026/)). For how oil moves the currency pairs, see [oil and inflation](/news/oil-and-inflation/). Live prices: [Brent crude](/markets/brent-crude-oil/).

## Sources

- [International Energy Agency: Oil Market Report, October 2026](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026)

## Common questions

### How much will oil demand fall in 2026, according to the IEA?

The IEA forecasts global oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day on average in 2026, with a 2.5 million fall in the fourth quarter.

### What does the IEA expect for 2027?

A partial recovery of 2 million barrels a day, which still leaves 2027 demand about 620,000 barrels a day below 2025.

### Why does the IEA expect oil demand to fall?

The IEA attributes it to the Middle East conflict, which has limited product supply, raised fuel prices and weakened the economy.

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