# Fed minutes: all 12 voters backed the September increase, and most participants expect another by year-end > The minutes of the 15–16 September meeting, released on 7 October, show that the 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%–4.00% was unanimous and that most participants expect another increase by the end of the year. - Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/fomc-minutes-september-2026-most-see-another-hike-by-year-end/ - Type: Data - Published: 2026-10-19 - Updated: 2026-10-19 - Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team - Currencies: USD The Federal Reserve published the minutes of its 15–16 September 2026 meeting at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on 7 October. The committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point, to 3.75%–4.00%, and all 12 voting members supported the increase. The minutes come three weeks after the decision, which is the normal interval. ## The decision The committee also raised the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90% and the primary credit rate to 4.00%, both effective 17 September. The statement said that today's policy action "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal" and that "the Committee will deliver price stability." Kevin Warsh chaired the meeting. ## What officials expect next Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range "would likely be appropriate by year end", while stressing that future decisions would depend on incoming information. Several said they viewed the current policy rate as "not restrictive or only mildly restrictive", and a couple said they had raised their estimate of the neutral rate, the level that neither slows nor speeds the economy. ## Inflation Participants said inflation remained elevated and that they had not seen sufficient progress on lowering it in recent months. Several noted that core services excluding housing were still rising quickly, and several said core goods prices were also elevated, as the AI buildout appeared to add to demand. Participants generally assessed inflation risks as skewed to the upside. Some expressed concern that, after more than five years of inflation above 2%, elevated rates could start to affect inflation expectations and wage and price setting. ## The labour market Participants judged labour market conditions to be stable and close to maximum employment, and a majority said the market had strengthened a little recently. Several noted that dynamism was unusually low, with few hires and layoffs and a persistently high rate of long-term unemployment. Participants saw the risks to the labour market as broadly balanced. ## Markets and yields The manager of the System Open Market Account reported that the market-implied policy path had risen notably over the intermeeting period, and that investors placed high odds on the September increase. Nominal Treasury yields rose by around 35 basis points across the 2- to 10-year segment, which the manager linked partly to the higher expected policy path and partly to higher term premiums, including heavy debt issuance to fund AI infrastructure. ## What the minutes cannot show The meeting took place before the September jobs report on 2 October ([report](/news/us-jobs-report-september-2026-payrolls/)) and before the September consumer price report on 14 October ([report](/news/us-cpi-september-2026-inflation-3-7-percent/)), so neither is reflected in the minutes. The committee's next meeting is on 27–28 October, with the decision on 28 October. The September decision itself is covered in [our report on the increase](/news/fed-raises-rates-september-2026/). For how the Fed's projections move the dollar, see [the Fed dot plot explained](/news/fed-dot-plot-explained/). Live prices: [EUR/USD](/markets/eur-usd/). ## Sources - [Federal Reserve Board: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15–16, 2026, released 7 October 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm) ## Common questions ### What did the September 2026 FOMC minutes show? All 12 voting members supported raising the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, and most participants expected another increase by the end of 2026 if the data allowed. ### Why did the minutes say inflation risks were skewed to the upside? Participants said inflation remained elevated and that energy prices, AI-related demand and tariffs were adding to pressure. They also worried that five years of inflation above 2% could start to affect expectations. ### When is the next FOMC decision? The committee meets on 27–28 October 2026, with the decision announced on 28 October. --- This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.