# The euro falls to $1.1204 on ECB reference rates, its lowest since May 2025, after four straight weekly declines > The European Central Bank's daily reference rate has fallen 3.6% since 4 September and 6.4% from its January high. Sterling, the Australian dollar and the yen also lost ground to the dollar. - Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/euro-falls-to-1-1204-lowest-since-may-2025-ecb-reference-rate/ - Type: Markets - Published: 2026-10-06 - Updated: 2026-10-06 - Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team - Currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY The European Central Bank publishes a reference exchange rate for the euro against about 30 currencies every working day at 2:15 p.m. Central European Time. On Monday 5 October 2026 the euro's reference rate against the US dollar was $1.1204. That is the lowest since 16 May 2025, when it was $1.1194. These are the Bank's own daily snapshots, not trading prices: the euro traded at different levels through the day, and intraday lows are lower than a once-a-day fixing. ## The path of EUR/USD on ECB reference rates - **4 September**: $1.1622 - **11 September**: $1.1592 - **18 September**: $1.1460 - **25 September**: $1.1403 - **2 October**: $1.1225 - **5 October**: $1.1204 Those Friday readings are four consecutive weekly declines, and the drop from 4 September to 5 October is 3.6%. In the last week alone the reference rate went $1.1378 (28 September), $1.1355 (29 and 30 September), $1.1298 (1 October), $1.1225 (2 October) and $1.1204. The 2026 high on the ECB's series was $1.1974 on 28 January, so the euro has lost 6.4% since then. It remains well above its January 2025 trough of about $1.02. ## The dollar against other currencies Cross rates calculated from ECB reference rates (EUR/USD divided by EUR/GBP, and so on) show the dollar firmer against most of the major currencies since early September. These are FTC's calculations, not ECB publications: - **GBP/USD**: 1.3225 on 5 October, from 1.3530 on 4 September - **AUD/USD**: 0.6960, from 0.7203 - **USD/CHF**: 0.8310, from 0.8092 - **USD/JPY**: 158.23, from 156.25 On the yen, the same calculation puts USD/JPY at 163.91 on 28 July, the highest of 2026, 160.24 on 31 July, the day the Ministry of Finance bought yen in coordination with the US Treasury ([report](/news/japan-us-joint-yen-intervention-2026/)), and 156.68 on 3 August. At 158.23 it is back above the level of 3 August, but 3.5% below the July high. The euro also fell against sterling (EUR/GBP 0.8472 from 0.8590) and the yen (EUR/JPY 177.28 from 181.59), while edging down against the Swiss franc (EUR/CHF 0.9311 from 0.9405). ## Why it moved: what the data do and don't show The reference rates show what happened, not why. News reports on 5 October, including CNBC and Bloomberg, tied the euro's slide to political uncertainty in France and Spain and to fiscal worries in the euro area. FTC hasn't verified those explanations against a primary source, so treat them as market commentary. The policy and data backdrop is documented: the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September ([report](/news/fed-raises-rates-september-2026/)), the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September ([report](/news/ecb-raises-interest-rates-september-2026/)), the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.28% on 2 October ([report](/news/us-treasury-yields-10-year-5-29-percent-september-2026/)) while euro area inflation hit 3.8% in September ([report](/news/euro-area-inflation-september-2026-flash-estimate/)). Inflation above target and a rate increase from the ECB would normally support a currency, and the euro's fall despite them is a reminder that rate differentials, growth and risk all pull at once. [Cross rates explained](/news/cross-rates-explained-how-to-calculate/) shows the calculation used above, [how the 10-year yield moves forex](/news/how-the-10-year-yield-moves-forex/) covers the US side, and [how to trade EUR/USD](/news/how-to-trade-eur-usd/) covers the pair. The Fed decides on 28 October and the ECB on 29 October. Live prices: [EUR/USD](/markets/eur-usd/). ## Sources - [European Central Bank: Euro foreign exchange reference rates, US dollar (daily series)](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html) - [ECB Data Portal: euro reference exchange rates (EXR), daily, USD, JPY, GBP, CHF and AUD](https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/EXR) ## Common questions ### What is the ECB reference rate for EUR/USD? It is a daily rate the European Central Bank publishes at 2:15 p.m. Central European Time, based on a regular concertation procedure between central banks. On 5 October 2026 it was $1.1204, the lowest since 16 May 2025. ### How far has the euro fallen against the dollar? On ECB reference rates, the euro is down 3.6% since 4 September and 6.4% from its 2026 high of $1.1974 on 28 January, after four straight weekly declines. ### Are cross rates such as GBP/USD published by the ECB? No. The ECB publishes rates against the euro. GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY in this article are calculated by dividing or multiplying two ECB reference rates, and they differ slightly from traded prices. --- This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.