# Euro area inflation jumps to 3.8% in September as energy prices rise 18.8% from a year earlier > Eurostat's flash estimate shows prices rising 0.6% in the month and inflation up from 3.2% in August. Core inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco edged up to 2.5%. The ECB meets on 28–29 October. - Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/euro-area-inflation-september-2026-flash-estimate/ - Type: Data - Published: 2026-10-05 - Updated: 2026-10-05 - Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team - Currencies: EUR Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August, according to Eurostat's flash estimate published on 2 October. Prices rose an estimated 0.6% on the month. The European Central Bank raised its rates on 10 September, when Eurostat's August flash estimate was 3.3% ([report](/news/ecb-raises-interest-rates-september-2026/)); the figure was later confirmed at 3.2% ([report](/news/euro-area-inflation-confirmed-3-2-percent-august-2026/)). ## The components - **Energy**: 18.8% (August: 14.3%), up an estimated 3.9% on the month - **Services**: 3.2% (August: 3.0%) - **Food, alcohol and tobacco**: 1.4% (August: 1.1%) - **Non-energy industrial goods**: 1.1% (August: 1.2%) - **All items excluding energy**: 2.3% (August: 2.1%) - **Core, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco**: 2.5% (August: 2.4%) Energy accounts for most of the jump, but the other measures also edged up, so the increase is not only an energy effect. ## By country Eurostat's estimates for the largest economies were Germany 3.3%, France 3.4%, Italy 4.1% and Spain 5.0%. The highest rate was in Lithuania, 6.1%, and the lowest in Latvia, 2.9%. The euro area has included Bulgaria since January 2026, and the figures cover 21 countries. ## What it means for the ECB and the euro The ECB's staff projections in September had headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, with the deposit rate now at 2.50%. This reading is above the August level the projections were built on. The Governing Council meets on 28–29 October, with the decision on 29 October, a day after the Federal Reserve ([report](/news/fed-raises-rates-september-2026/)). The eurozone's flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September ([report](/news/flash-pmi-september-2026-us-eurozone-uk/)). For how this feeds into the currency, see [how interest rate decisions move currencies](/news/how-interest-rate-decisions-move-currencies/). Live prices: [EUR/USD](/markets/eur-usd/). ## What happens next The full September data, which can revise the flash figures, are published on 16 October. The October flash estimate follows on 4 November. ## Sources - [Eurostat: Euro area annual inflation up to 3.8%, flash estimate for September 2026 (2 October 2026)](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-02102026-ap) - [European Central Bank: monetary policy meeting calendar](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html) ## Common questions ### What was euro area inflation in September 2026? A flash estimate of 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August, Eurostat reported on 2 October 2026. ### What drove euro area inflation higher in September 2026? Mainly energy, whose annual rate rose to 18.8% from 14.3%. Services, food, alcohol and tobacco, and core inflation also edged up. ### What is euro area core inflation? Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco it was 2.5% in September 2026, up from 2.4% in August, according to Eurostat's flash estimate. ### Which euro area country has the highest inflation? Lithuania, at an estimated 6.1% in September 2026. Spain was 5.0%, Italy 4.1%, France 3.4% and Germany 3.3%. ### When does the ECB decide next? The Governing Council meets on 28–29 October 2026, with the monetary policy decision on 29 October. ### When is the final September inflation data? 16 October 2026. The flash figure is an estimate and can be revised. --- This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.