# ECB decision on 29 October: inflation at 3.8% in September puts the deposit rate of 2.50% in focus > The Governing Council announces its decision at 14:15 Frankfurt time on 29 October, six weeks after raising rates. Eurostat's flash estimate put September inflation at 3.8%, and there are no new staff projections at this meeting. - Canonical URL: https://forextradingcommunity.com/news/ecb-october-2026-decision-preview/ - Type: Preview - Published: 2026-10-27 - Updated: 2026-10-27 - Publisher: Forex Trading Community (https://forextradingcommunity.com), FTC Editorial Team - Currencies: EUR The European Central Bank's Governing Council announces its monetary policy decision on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 14:15 Frankfurt time, with the press conference at 14:45. The meeting runs 28–29 October. The deposit facility rate is 2.50%, after the 25 basis point increase on 10 September that took effect on 16 September ([report](/news/ecb-raises-interest-rates-september-2026/)). The figures below are those known on 5 October. ## The inflation picture Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August, with energy 18.8% higher than a year earlier. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.5% from 2.4% ([report](/news/euro-area-inflation-september-2026-flash-estimate/)). Eurostat's full September data, scheduled for 16 October ([week ahead](/news/forex-week-ahead-12-16-october-2026/)), can revise the flash figure. ## What the ECB expected in September Staff projections in September had headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, and growth of 0.9% this year. The Governing Council said it sets policy meeting by meeting, based on incoming data, and does not commit to a path. Staff projections are published quarterly with the decisions of March, June, September and December, so October brings none. ## The growth side The eurozone flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September from 52.0 ([report](/news/flash-pmi-september-2026-us-eurozone-uk/)). October's flash PMIs, published on 23 October ([week ahead](/news/forex-week-ahead-19-23-october-2026/)), are the latest growth reading before the meeting. ## What to look at - **The decision itself** and any dissent reported at the press conference - **The language on inflation.** Whether the Council still describes it as expected to stay above 2% for an extended period - **Whether it repeats that it is not pre-committing** - **The reaction relative to the Fed**, which decides a day earlier ([Fed preview](/news/fed-october-2026-decision-preview/)) ## What it means for the euro The euro responds to the ECB's path against other central banks'. The Fed raised rates on 16 September and the Bank of Japan on 18 September ([report](/news/bank-of-japan-raises-rate-1-25-percent-september-2026/)). Live prices: [EUR/USD](/markets/eur-usd/). [How interest rate decisions move currencies](/news/how-interest-rate-decisions-move-currencies/) explains why guidance matters. ## What happens next The October flash inflation estimate is published on 4 November. The Council's next meeting, with new projections, is on 16–17 December. ## Sources - [European Central Bank: Governing Council monetary policy meetings, 2026 (28–29 October and 16–17 December)](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html) - [Eurostat: Euro area annual inflation up to 3.8%, flash estimate for September 2026](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-02102026-ap) ## Common questions ### When is the ECB decision in October 2026? Thursday 29 October 2026 at 14:15 Frankfurt time, with the press conference at 14:45. The meeting runs 28–29 October. ### What is the ECB deposit rate? 2.50%, after the increase of 10 September 2026 that took effect on 16 September. ### What was euro area inflation in September 2026? 3.8% in Eurostat's flash estimate, up from 3.2% in August. Core inflation was 2.5%. ### Will there be new ECB projections in October 2026? No. Staff projections are published with the March, June, September and December decisions. ### When is the ECB's next meeting after October? 16–17 December 2026. --- This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of losing money.